I like Rutgers here as a road favorite this team is geared up and pumped up to be playing the triple option according to Kyle Flood. Rutgers is 12-2 since 2001 vs. triple option teams, and this defense has played better vs. the run than last year when they allowed 5.53 ypc on the season, but they were able to hold Navy, a much more polished version of this offense to a season low 171 yards, and they did not have an extra week of practice. The value is on Rutgers in my opinion this team is not as bad as they have looked losing their last 4 in a row SU & ATS, losing ATS by 9.5, 9, 30, and 21. I think they bounce back with a win ATS here.
Rutgers gets a break here in the defense they face, and when they are not playing a top tier defense this offense can hum a little bit. Army ranked 128th in pass defense, 68th in run defense, and the last 4 games Rutgers has faced 4 teams in the top 22 in run defense, and 3 of the 4 were ranked top 5 in pass defense, yes you got that right they faced the best pass defense, 3rd, and 5th all in their last 4 games. Iâm not surprised this offense has sputtered, but they have put up big numbers when going up against a pass defense like Army.
If Rutgers is able to score like I think they will they wonât have an issue covering this number. Army is not going to try to kick field goals, and Rutgers is very good out of conference play on third downs. I think they will defense the triple option well, as Kyle Flood, a very good coach has challenged his team stating âthis is one of the great challenges in all college football.â They did a great job last year under DC Joe Rossi, and over their last 14 where they have gone 12-2 they have held triple option offenses 46.4 yards below their season average. Army not nearly as polished as the Navy teams Rutgers has faced, and I think Rutgers hold them well under their season average of 254. When Army is held under that average they are 0-5 losing games by an average of 13.8 points. We have two things working for us in this match up, Rutgers ability to defend this triple option, and Armyâs defense giving Rutgers an ability to score that they havenât had lately. Iâm all over this one.
The total in this game is 40, and we get 10 points to work with a dominant defense against an offense that has not been very good at all. Typically Wisconsin can run the ball with the best of teams, but they are one of the worst, and they havenât played a lot of good run defenses. I donât see anything changing that at this point in the season as this team has just two 200+ yard rushing games and those came against Hawaii and Rutgers. Wisconsin has played just two teams in the top 25 in defense and scored 17, and 6 points, Northwestern is ranked 9th in yards per play allowed.
These two teams look like a mirror of each other. Both predicated on their defense, and running the ball, and ironically Northwestern has run the ball better 4.03 YPC in conference play vs. better defenses â they have faced 5 top 25 defenses, Wisconsin just 1 in conference play. Wisconsin has averaged just 3.56 ypc in conference play. Both pass defenses are excellent allowing 5 passing TDâs on the season, so scoring is going to be at a premium here. It will be a little windy as well so I give the edge to Northwestern here with a mobile QB. Joel Stave has not played well vs. this defense throwing 5 interceptions, and heâs faced 3 top 35 passing defenses this year and has not played well 2 TDâs and 3 INTâs in 3 games. Northwestern 7th in passing defense for opposing QB rating. Granted Northwestern hasnât really faced any QBâs that can bomb it away, but Stave struggled vs. Rutgers (117th passing defense), and Maryland (83rd).
Northwestern also has an edge in special teams with Soloman Vault. I get that Wisconsin is off a bye here and has a very good defense, but Northwestern is well coached by Fitzgerald. They come off a 3 turnover game last week, and have bounced back twice with 0 turnovers in their next game. I give them a lot of credit here, and I think theyâll be competitive.
